Evaluation of parameter uncertainties in nonlinear regression using Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet

Background: Nonlinear relationships are common in the environmental discipline. Spreadsheet packages such as Microsoft Excel come with an add-on for nonlinear regression, but parameter uncertainty estimates are not yet available. The purpose of this paper is to use Monte Carlo and bootstrap methods to estimate nonlinear parameter uncertainties with a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. As an example, uncertainties of two parameters (α and n) for a soil water retention curve are estimated. Results: The fitted parameters generally do not follow a normal distribution. Except for the upper limit of α using the bootstrap method, the lower and upper limits of α and n obtained by these two methods are slightly greater than those obtained using the SigmaPlot software which linearlizes the nonlinear model. Conclusions: Since the linearization method is based on the assumption of normal distribution of parameter values, the Monte Carlo and bootstrap methods may be preferred to the linearization method.